The future of public peer to peer technologies is extricably bound up to a large extent with the future of free content. (Leuf, 2002:373) Companies will have to expand significant resources to protect themselves against lawsuits. Due to a failure on all fronts, the music industry's decision to file lawsuits against several hundred individuals has evidently embarrassed the industry and alienated the public. From a public relations perspective, the relationship built with the publics concerned had once been mutually beneficial, however by not adapting to the ever changing technological environment the industry has lost credibility. According to Vaidhyanathan the industry has been trying to "take the anarchy out of the music, and take the music out of the anarchy." (Vaidhyanathan, 2004:45) The question at hand revolves around the time when the current 60 million fans become legitimate consumers of content via peer to peer or will the companies currently opposing the advancement of peer to peer technologies have their way and continue to threaten, sue, and deny access to a technology that will continue to develop?
Brosnan states, "Companies will have to expend significant resources to protect themselves against lawsuits. There will always be illegal file-sharing and copyright infringement, but these will be at the periphery. Any one system that gets too large will presumably suffer the same fate as Napster, unless it is so decentralised and anarchic that no one can be held accountable. A lot depends on the legislation drawn up by governments in response to P2P . Whether the burden of preventing copyright infringement falls on the developers of P2P systems, or the users, will be vital" (Brosnan,Colhoun,MacArdle Maitrat, 2002).
Norbert J. Michel, has explored numerous studies concerning the future market for music. It is evident that change is occurring making the industry different from today's market, thus making great impact on the direction of the peer to peer debate. In 2003, the U.S. music industry reported annual sales of almost $12 billion. (Norbert, 2004) Nearly all of those sales (about 90 percent) occurred in stores. Sales through mail order currently represent 4 percent of annual sales. Internet sales , though growing, still account for 5 percent of the total. (Norbert, 2004) Music sales over the Internet are likely to be more plentiful in coming years, but Internet commerce for all types of goods is still in its early stages. (Norbert, 2004) Among all Internet users, 21 percent report making online purchases. This report also shows that Internet use is higher among younger people and that younger individuals who use the Internet are likely to continue to do so as they age. Therefore, it can be predicted that by the year 2020, digital files will be sold over the Internet, with no additional copying, packaging, or shipping because the original serves as the "master" copy for all customers. (Norbert, 2004) There are many proposed systems of music file-sharing that hope to prevent freeloading by users off networks. For example, MojoNation offers a digital marketplace where consumers who contribute recieve a prize of Mojo points. Plus, consuming resources uses up Mojo, thus creating an atmosphere of giving and receiving. Other companies are attempting to introduce “legal� downloading, such as Apple’s iTunes system of music downloads which requires the user to pay a small fee for each file downloaded. By comparison Puretunes will require its users to pay for the period of time that they wish to download, similarly like a subscription. Because consumers are more willing and likely to make their purchases online, the future of the industry is ambiguous. It is obvious though, that digital downloading will never become the preferred method of selling music if file sharing is allowed to flourish. (Norbert, 2004)
Brosnan, A., Maitrat T., Colhoun A. and MacArdle B. 2002 Peer to Peer Networks - Historical Development, retrieved September 4, 2004, from URL: http://ntrg.cs.tcd.ie/undergrad/4ba2.02-03/p1.htm
Leuf,B. 2002, Peer to peer : collaboration and sharing over the Internet, Addison-Wesley, Boston
Norbert,M. 2004 Internet File Sharing: The Evidence So Far and What It Means for the Future retrieved August 23, 2004 from URL:http://www.heritage.org/Research/InternetandTechnology/bg1790.cfm
Vaidhyanathan,S. 2004, The Peer-to-Peer Revolution and the Future of Music in "The Anarchist in the Library - How the Clash Between Freedom and Control Is Hacking the Real World and Crashing the System", Basic Books, New York.
